中国铝土矿可供性分析

在市场经济条件下中国铝土矿的储量与产量可供性受价格波动影响明显.本文基于DCF财务现金流折现估值模型,编制2016-2020年中国铝土矿储量、产量与价格关系图,可直观地看到在不同市场价格、不同内部收益率时,2016-2020年中国铝土矿储量和产量供应能力,从而为我国编制铝土矿资源规划.通过分析可以看出:虽然眼下矿业形势低迷,但未来五年中国铝土矿仍然储量充沛、供应旺盛.已查明保有资源在2016年最大可供储量为31.82亿吨,最大可供产量为6 400万吨,到2020年最大可供储量为28.78亿吨,最大可供产量为7 300万吨.当务之急是合理布局并缩减过剩产能,促使铝土矿资源的开发利用健康可持续.

An Analysis of Bauxite Mineral Availability in China

Under the condition of market economy, the availability of bauxite reserves and production in China are affected significantly by price fluctuations. Based on discounted cash flow finance analysis model, the authors compiled dynamic relationship figure between reserves, production and price. With the figure, we can visually know the supply capacity of bauxite reserves and production in different market prices and internal rates of return from 2016 to 2020. It can help government to formulate utilization planning of bauxite resources in the 13th Five-Year Plan or provide enterprise groups with dynamic management information of reserves so as to boost profitability. As can be seen from the analysis, although the mining industry is in the downturn, bauxite in China still has abundant reserves and strong supply from 2016 to 2020. The largest available reserves and production of identified and retained bauxite resources are respectively 3.182 billion tons and 64 million tons in 2016, and will be 2.878 billion tons and 73 million tons in 2020. It is imperative to fully consider the proper redistribution and reduce excess capacity with the purpose of prompting the development and utilization of bauxite resources in a sustainable way.