山洪泥石流灾害预报预警技术述评

山洪泥石流灾害一直都是山区人民的心头之患，严重威胁着山区人民的生命财产安全。山洪泥石流灾害预报预防，是21世纪我国山丘区防灾减灾的一个重要战略方向。文章通过对国内外大量文献资料的综合分析，评价了目前国内外最具典型的山洪泥石流灾害空间预报技术、时间预报技术以及预警系统开发等预报预警技术，并指出了未来山洪泥石流灾害预报预警技术的发展趋势。

A Review on the Technique of Forecasting and Alarming Flush Flood and Debris Flow Disaster

The technique of forecasting and alarming flush flood and debris flow disaster is always taken as an important aspect in the field of study on disaster prevention and reduction in mountainous areas worldwide. It is su mmarized that space forecasting, time forecasting and the systems of forecasting and alarming are major branches of this technique, which is evaluated on the basis of current research situation investigation home and abroad. In this paper, 3 typical techniques applied in space forecasting in China are emphatically evaluated: a) basing on the judgement of debris flow ditch or non debris flow ditch, the danger level of the whole debris flow ditch can be defined by risk degree analysis with composite index; b) the danger level of the different districts can be defined by investigating the risk degree and distribution density of debris flow ditch; c) the space position and ranges of hazard zone in ditch can be defined by adopting hazard zone mapping model of different types of ditch according to the torrent classification in the studied region. The technique of real-time forecasting debris flow disaster technique is evaluated as a major aspect in time forecasting. The researches from China and the outside are now focused on the regression models establishment of the quantity and strength of rain when debris flow occur. There are slight differences between such researches in selecting the parameter of rain rate and the number of effective rain days. Such models are built mainly in 2 forms,straight line equation and index equation. In the study and development of the system of forecasting and alarming, Japan and the former Soviet Union predominate internationally in monitoring and detecting apparatus and other hardware equipments. China's technique on information transfer of forecasting and alarming lags behind other countries, however, some regional systems are set up domestically with modern network and tele-tech. And at the end of this review, it is an outlook on the development of the technique of forecasting and alarming flush floods and debris flows disaster in the future.