| 华北地区Benioff应变释放趋势拟合分析及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑建常,许萍,冀东普,林眉,周翠英.华北地区Benioff应变释放趋势拟合分析及预测[J].内陆地震,2010,24(1):41-49. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑建常 许萍 冀东普 林眉 周翠英 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东省地震局,山东,济南,205514 |
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| 基金项目： | 山东省地震局合同制项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于地震活动稳态发展的假设,利用华北地区各构造(地震)带1970年以来的Benioff应变累积释放序列,采用多种非线性函数对各带的应变累积释放趋势进行拟合,根据最佳拟合模型对各带未来1~3年的应变释放量进行预测,并根据各带的线性震级频度关系,计算预测的应变释放量所对应的最大震级。
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| 关 键 词： | 非线性函数拟合 蠕变曲线 华北 |
FORECAST AND TREND FITTING ANALYSIS OF BENIOFF STRAIN RELEASE IN NORTH CHINA |
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| ZHENG Jian-chang,XU Ping,JI Dong-pu,LIN Mei,ZHOU Cui-ying.FORECAST AND TREND FITTING ANALYSIS OF BENIOFF STRAIN RELEASE IN NORTH CHINA[J].Inland Earthquake,2010,24(1):41-49. |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Jian-chang XU Ping JI Dong-pu LIN Mei ZHOU Cui-ying |
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| Institution: | Earthquake administration of Shandong province/a>;Ji'nan 205514/a>;Shandong/a>;China |
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| Abstract: | On the assumption that current state of earthquake activities in North China will go on,based on Benioff strain released series of different tectonic belts since 1970,many types of non-linear functions have been adopted to fit the strain cumulative release trend.By the proximal and optimal fitting model,the author gives the forecasts of Benioff strain release in the coming 1 to 3 years.According to the linear magnitude frequency law,the author also gives estimation of corresponding max magnitude for each te... |
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| Keywords: | Nonlinear function fitting Creep deformation curves North China |
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