不确定性理论集对分析在预报模型建立中的应用研究

文中应用集对分析原理 ,在模型每次作出预报结论之前先对各预报因子的预报能力进行分析和判断 ,对一些预报能力不强 ,甚至可能干扰预报模型作出正确预报结论的所谓弱势因子 ,进行抑制、甚至消除其影响 ,而让其他预报能力较强的因子来决定预报结论。在每次预报中 ,模型中哪个因子为弱势是不固定的 ,而是随着预报环境的变化而变化 ,也就是说 ,随着环境的变化 ,会有不同因子的作用被抑制或取消 ,从而实现预报模型的因子结构动态优化 ,增强了模型预报机制的合理性 ,提高了模型的预报能力。大量的试验、多年的业务试用以及在数值预报产品释用中的应用例子表明 ,这一方法具有较好的效果。

THE APPLICATION RESEARCH OF THE THEORY OF UNCERTAINTY-SET PAIR ANALYSIS IN ESTABLISHMENT OF WEATHER FORCAST MODELS

The forecast factors in weather forecast models have been selected strictly by means of the characteristics of forecasted objects, the physical meaning of forecasting factors and the experience in forecasting weather, and some technical ways. In general, these selected forecast factors have all better forecasting abilities, but the better abilities of these factors aren't always unchanged and sometimes, the badness ability of someone factor may produce error in forecast results. Set Pair Analysis (SPA) is a systemic theory and method used in researching and analyzing non authenticity. Using the theory and method , this paper make judgment of station and analysis of same difference reverse about the factors before being used to forecast weather. In analyzing ,the method weakens effect of those factors with badness abilities in forecast models , while those with better abilities in the models would play more important action. As a result the processes above have made the dynamic changes in the structure of the factors in the forecast models, which intensifies the rationality of forecasting mechanisms and the ability. The applications in interpret and use from the numerical forecast products indicate that the method has better effect.