| PREDICTION AND VERIFICATION OF THE 1997—1999 EL NINOAND LA NINA BY USING AN INTERMEDIATE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL |
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| 作者姓名： | 李清泉 赵宗慈 丁一汇 |
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| 作者单位： | National Climate Center Beijing 100081，National Climate Center，Beijing 100081，National Climate Center，Beijing 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | This work was financially supported jointly by the open climate research project(96-6LCS-12)of China Meteorological Administration，the sub-project Ⅱ(96-908-02-05)of National Key Project“Studies on Short-term Climate Prediction System in China”. |
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| 摘 要： | The numerical simulations,hindcasts and verifications of the tropical Pacific sea surfacetemperature anomaly(SSTA)have been conducted by using a dynamical tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupled model named NCCo.The results showed that the model had performedreasonable simulations of the major El Nino episodes in the history,and the model forecast skill in1990s had been significantly improved.NCCo model has been used to predict the tropical PacificSSTA since January 1997.The comparisons between predictions and observations indicated thatthe occurrence,evolution and ending of the 1997/1998 El Nino episode have been predicted fairlywell by using this model.Also,the La Nina episode that began in the autumn of 1998 and thedeveloping tendency of the tropical Pacific SSTA during the year 1999 have been predictedsuccessfully.The forecast skills of NCCo model during the 1997-1999 El Nino and La Ninaevents are above 0.5 at 0—14 lead months.
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