近千年全球气候变化的长积分模拟试验

近千年全球气候变化的长积分模拟试验是全球气候模拟研究的新领域，它不仅将现代器测资料与过去代用指标序列进行了有机的衔接，而且对过去百年和年代际尺度的气候变化可进行动力学解释，探讨其主要控制因素及其导致的区域响应差异。由于这类长积分模拟对计算机技术和气候模式本身的要求较高，目前能进行这类研究的国家为数不多。重点介绍了德国马普气象研究所的全球海气耦合气候模式ECHO G，以及利用该模式进行的千年长积分模拟试验结果。首先，应用全球120年的器测资料对模拟结果进行了检验，论证了该模型较强的气候模拟能力；其次，根据全球地表2 m气温的千年模拟结果，揭示了中世纪暖期—小冰期—20世纪暖期三段式气候变化时段，然后讨论了中世纪暖期和小冰期鼎盛期全球及中国的温度分布特点；最后根据对各控制因子的拟合分析与比较，初步揭示了近千年来的温度变化主要受太阳有效辐射的变化控制，而温室气体含量的增加对100年来温度的快速上升起着主导作用。 

LONG-TIME MODELING EXPERIMENT ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE LAST MILLENNIUM

Long-time modeling experiment is a new research field in the global climate simulation. It can not only link present instrumental climatic data up with past proxy record series, but also explain dynamical mechanism of past centennial and decadal climate change, and discuss its main control factors and the difference of regional response. Only few countries can carry on this kind of long-time modeling experiment research at present, for it needs advanced computer technology and climate model. In this paper, the global atmosphere-ocean coupled climate model ECHO-G from Max Planck Institute for Meteorology is introduced, and the result of long-time modeling experiment for the last 1000 years is analyzed. First, the climatic simulation ability of this model has been proved by Jones 120-year global integrated instrumental data. Second, according to the surface 2m air temperature of the millennium simulation, the three stages of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the warming of 20~(th) century in 1000-year climate change are shown, and the distribution characteristics of global and Chinese temperature at the maximum of MWP and the minimum of LIA are analyzed. Finally, based on fitting analysis and comparison on controlling factors, it can be seen that the change of temperature is controlled mainly by the change of effective solar radiation during the last 1000 years, while the increase of the contents of greenhouse gases plays a big role on the fast warming over the past 100 years.