| 甘肃省耕地压力动态变化及空间差异分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 孙国军.甘肃省耕地压力动态变化及空间差异分析[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(4):1120-1126. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 孙国军 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 新疆大学 资源与环境科学学院/绿洲生态教育部重点实验室, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046;2. 中国科学院 新疆生态与地理研究所 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011;3. 河西学院 历史文化与旅游学院, 甘肃 张掖 734000 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 河西学院校长基金，国家科技支撑计划项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 以甘肃省1949-2012年统计数据为基础数据, 分析了甘肃省64 a来耕地面积变化的特点, 计算最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数, 并运用GM(1, 1)模型预测未来15 a耕地压力指数变化. 结果表明: 1949-2012年的64 a时间里, 耕地面积增加了1.67×104 hm2, 最小人均耕地面积减少了0.526 hm2, 耕地压力指数减少了0.951. 2012年14个地级市耕地压力指数差异大, 河西走廊大部分地区、 陇东、 陇南耕地压力指数低, 中部地区耕地压力指数高, 甘南地区耕地压力指数最高. 预测结果表明, 未来15 a甘肃耕地压力指数呈微弱的下降趋势, 耕地压力严峻.
|
| 关 键 词： | 耕地 模型 压力指数 甘肃省 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-02-21 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015-06-05 |
Analysis of the dynamic change and spatial difference of cultivated land pressure in Gansu Province |
| |
| SUN Guojun.Analysis of the dynamic change and spatial difference of cultivated land pressure in Gansu Province[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2015,37(4):1120-1126. |
| |
| Authors: | SUN Guojun |
| |
| Institution: | 1. College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang University/Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology of Ministry of Education, Vrümqi 830046, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Vrümqi 830011, China;3. School of History Agriculture and Tourism, Hexi University, Zhangye 734000, Gansu, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The changing features of cultivated land area were analyzed based on 64-a statistical yearbooks, the minimum per capital cultivated land area and pressure index of cultivated land in Gansu Province were calculated, and the tendency of pressure index of cultivated land in the future 15 years was estimated using the GM(1, 1) model. The results show that cultivated land had increased 1.67×104hm2, the minimum per capital cultivated land had reduced 0.526 hm2, and the pressure index of cultivated land had reduced 0.951. It is found that the pressure index of cultivated land has difference among the 14 prefecture: lower than the warning line(k=1) in the most of the Hexi Corridor, east and south of the province, higher in the central sub-region of the province, highest in Gannan Autonomous Prefecture. It is estimated that pressure index of cultivated land will decrease slowly in the future 15 years, showing a serious cultivated land pressure. |
| |
| Keywords: | cultivated land model pressure index of cultivated land Gansu Province |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《冰川冻土》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《冰川冻土》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
