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气候变化背景下长江源区径流变化特征及其成因分析
引用本文:齐冬梅,李跃清,陈永仁,赵旋,周长艳. 气候变化背景下长江源区径流变化特征及其成因分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(4): 1075-1086. DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0120
作者姓名:齐冬梅  李跃清  陈永仁  赵旋  周长艳
作者单位:1. 中国气象局 成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 四川 成都 610072;2. 四川省气象台, 四川 成都 610072
基金项目:四川省气象局科学技术研究开发课题,国家自然科学基金,中国工程院咨询研究项目
摘    要:利用1960-2011年历年逐月长江上游通天河流域直门达水文站观测的流量资料、 长江源区气象台站观测资料以及NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料, 研究分析了长江源区径流变化特征及其气候归因. 结果表明: 2005年之前, 长江源区年及夏、 秋、 冬季的平均流量呈持续下降趋势, 2005年以后, 长江源区年及四季的平均流量均呈显著增加趋势. 其中, 以夏季平均流量的增幅最为明显, 年平均流量有4 a左右及12 a左右的变化周期. 高原夏季风、 长江源区夏季7、 8月地面感热、 流域降水量、 蒸发量、 气温及冰川和积雪融水均对长江源区流量变化有明显影响. 2005年以后, 长江源区年及四季的降水量呈明显的增加趋势, 而蒸发量呈明显的减少趋势. 同时, 温度急剧上升导致的冰川和积雪融水增多, 是2005年以来长江源区流量急剧增加的重要原因.

关 键 词:径流  长江源区  气候变化  高原季风  
收稿时间:2014-11-06
修稿时间:2015-04-19

Changing characteristics and cause analysis of the runoff in the source regions of the Yangtze River under the background of climate change
QI Dongmei,LI Yueqing,CHEN Yongren,ZHAO Xuan,ZHOU Changyan. Changing characteristics and cause analysis of the runoff in the source regions of the Yangtze River under the background of climate change[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2015, 37(4): 1075-1086. DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0120
Authors:QI Dongmei  LI Yueqing  CHEN Yongren  ZHAO Xuan  ZHOU Changyan
Affiliation:1. Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorology Administration/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China;2. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China
Abstract:Using the monthly hydrological and meteorological observational data in the source regions of the Yangtze River and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly data from 1960 to 2011, the variation characteristics of the runoff in the source regions of the Yangtze River and its climate cause have been analyzed by a variety of analytical methods in this paper. Results show that the annual mean runoff and runoffs in summer, autumn and winter had a persistent declining trend in the source regions of the Yangtze River before 2005, and the annual mean runoff and seasonal mean runoffs have a notable increasing trend in the source regions of the Yangtze River after 2005; especially in summer, the increasing trend is very obvious. In a long-term, the annual mean runoff in the source regions of the Yangtze River varies obviously, with quasi-periods of 4-year and 12-year. The plateau summer monsoon, the surface sensible heat in the source regions from July to August, precipitation, evaporation, temperature and the meltwater from snow and glaciers have evident contribution to the variation of runoff. After 2005, the annual and seasonal precipitations in the regions have increased notably, but the annual and seasonal evaporations in the regions have decreased significantly; the meltwater from snow and glaciers has increased due to temperature increasing notably; all of these have caused runoff sharp increase in the source regions of the Yangtze River since 2005. Under the above background of climate change, the runoff has sharply increased in the source regions of the Yangtze River since 2005.
Keywords:runoff  source region of the Yangtze River  climate change  plateau monsoon
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