Hybrid model for nowcasting and forecasting the K index |
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| Authors: | I Kutiev P Muhtarov B Andonov R Warnant |
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| Institution: | 1. Geophysical Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria;2. Royal Meteorological Institute, Brussels, Belgium;1. Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;2. Beijing National Observatory of Space Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;3. School of Mathematics and Physics, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China;1. School of Electronic Information, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China;2. China Research Institute of Radiowave Propagation, Qingdao, China;3. Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;4. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;1. Embrace, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos, SP, CP 12201-970, Brazil;2. LANCE, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, Monterrey, CP 66451, Mexico;3. CONACyT, Instituto de Geofísica, Unidad Michoacan, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, Michoacán, CP 58190, Mexico;4. LANCE, Instituto de Geofísica, Unidad Michoacán, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, Michoacán, CP 58190, Mexico;5. Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores, Unidad Morelia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, CP 58190, Mexico;1. Department of ECM, Koneru Lakshmaiah Education Foundation, Vaddeswaram, Guntur Dt., 522502 Andhra Pradesh, India;2. Department of ECE, Koneru Lakshmaiah Education Foundation, Vaddeswaram, Guntur Dt., 522502 Andhra Pradesh, India;1. Dep. of Electrical Engineering, University of Brasilia (UnB), 70910-900 Brasília, Brazil;2. The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Strada Costiera 11, 34151 Trieste, Italy |
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| Abstract: | A new empirical model nowcasting and predicting a proxy to the geomagnetic K index is developed, which is based on the combined use of solar wind parameters and ground-based magnetic data. The present approach implements the previously developed solar wind-based MAK model, calibrating its values with magnetogram-derived K index. The new model is named as Hybrid Dourbes K (HDK) model. The HDK nowcast model provides the quantity Kdf, obtained by solar wind-based Ksw and corrected with a combination of differences between several past values of Kd and Ksw. The model error of the nowcast Kdf is found to be 0.38 KU, or nearly twice less than that of the MAK model. Kdf has a good predictability. Prediction made by weighted extrapolation 6 h ahead carries an error of 1.0 KU, while for the first 1 h the error is 0.58 KU only. |
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