冬小麦冬季干旱时段灌溉气象适宜指数研究

对1955-2010年宿州市冬季降水量和气温变化的数理统计分析结果表明：宿州市冬小麦冬季仍处于缓慢生长状态，特别是在干旱和暖冬的双重影响下，冬季麦田一般需要灌溉一次。在此基础上，采用德尔菲法（Delphi technique），确定了影响冬季麦田实施灌溉的降水、日最低气温和风速3个气象要素的各自的量化等级和影响灌溉适宜与否的权重系数，给出了冬季干旱时段灌溉气象适宜指数概念和计算模型，再结合天气预报产品的释用方法，得到了冬小麦冬季干旱时段灌溉农用天气预报产品。经实例应用，可适应对外发布冬季麦田灌溉农用天气产品的需要。

Research on Meteorological Suitability Index for Winter Wheat Irrigation in Winter Drought Period

Based on the mathematical statistics analysis on temperature changes and precipitation data in Suzhou City of Anhui Province in winter from 1955 to 2010, the study has shown that winter wheat in Suzhou always grows slowly in winter, especially under the double influences of drought and warmer winter, when irrigation is needed. According to the above results, by using Delphi technique, the three meteorological factors (precipitation, daily minimum temperature, and wind speed) are chosen, which have effects on winter irrigation, and their quantitative grades and weight coefficients affecting irrigation suitability are set up. And then, the meteorological suitability index for winter wheat irrigation in winter drought period is proposed and its computational model is built. Finally, combined with the appropriate technology of weather forecast, the study presented the weather forecast products for winter wheat irrigation in winter drought period. The case validation shows that the model has the ability to satisfy the needs of issuing the weather forecast products for farming.