Time-dependent reliability analysis for radionuclide migration in groundwater in near surface disposal facility using the enhanced Monte Carlo method

In the present study, reliability analysis of near surface disposal facility is performed, by assessing the probability of sequential failure of the multi barrier system using the contaminant transport model. The concentration and dose rate of the radionuclide evolve with time hence there is a need for time dependent reliability analysis. Due to the low values of expected probabilities of failure, an enhanced Monte Carlo (EMC) method and Subset simulation is employed. The Result of the analysis show that, the EMC method is useful to evaluate the probability of failure associated with the barrier system which has low probability of failure.