System reliability analysis for near-surface radioactive waste disposal facilities

The low- and intermediate-level radioactive wastes are generally disposed in near-surface disposal facility (NSDF). The NSDF is composed of engineered barriers. The probabilistic safety assessment model has been developed to analyse the performance of NSDF. The endpoints of the assessment are the concentration of the radionuclide in the groundwater and the corresponding dose rate of the radionuclide. The barrier system can have multiple failure modes but practically the possible failure modes are failure of top cover, failure of waste container, degradation of waste form and failure of bottom cover, which are usually considered as independent failure events. Through a sensitivity analysis, the most critical parameters affecting the design reliability for failure criteria are identified as the groundwater velocity and distribution coefficient. The study shows that for the NSDF considered, there is a high degree of dependence between the failure modes, and demonstrates the probability of the simultaneous occurrence of failures. Thus, the need to consider the system reliability in the NSDF is highlighted. The study also advocates the use of optimisation techniques to evaluate the probability of failure, which provides a better estimate of the probability of failure, as validated from the results obtained from Monte Carlo simulations.