Re-evaluating the impacts of human activity and environmental change on desertification in the Minqin Oasis, China

The Minqin Oasis and its adjacent regions in northern China experienced significant desertification beginning 2,000 years ago and continuing to the present, and numerous studies have claimed that human activities, especially the flourishing of agriculture, have played a major role in environmental change in this region. Our analysis suggests that the observed desertification was mainly controlled by changes in the water component of the ecosystem and the arid climate. The impacts of cultivation on desertification from 2,000 years ago to the mid-1900s appear to have been relatively minor compared to the impacts of the area’s arid climate and its native geomorphological processes. Although human activity has increased from the late-1940s to the present, and the areas of the oasis reclaimed for agriculture have reached a maximum, desertification over the past 50 years appears to be a continuing process that began thousands of years ago, and is mainly controlled by decreasing water levels caused by the arid climate, local geomorphological processes and overuse of water in the upstream. Although both human activities and climate variation are important drivers of the desertification process, and it is not possible to completely separate the human influence from the climate impact, key factors on controlling desertification should be investigated before we place the blame solely on the flourishing of agriculture in this region.