石家庄市空气污染预警天气背景分析及模型的建立

根据石家庄市环境空气质量三级预警标准,系统分析了造成石家庄高浓度污染的天气背景、气象要素特征,建立了高浓度污染的天气模型和预警判别指标;并结合数值预报产品建立了集成预报模式,在此基础上利用数值预报产品提取预警指标,建立了经验指标法定性判别与定量预报相结合的空气污染预警系统。经业务应用表明:系统可以提高高浓度污染的预报准确率,是开展空气污染预警较为有效的方法。

Analysis and modeling on synoptic background of air pollution in Shijiazhuang

Based on the three-level warning standard of air pollution in Shijiazhuang,the synoptic background and meteorological element features which leaded to higher air pollution concentration were analyzed.The weather model and warning indexes of higher concentration air pollution were established.According to numerical forecast productions,some new ensemble forecast models were developed.In addition,warning indexes was extracted.The air pollution warning system was set up in terms of experiential index and quantitative forecast.The warning system could remarkably improve the accurate rate of higher air pollution concentration forecast by real-time use and test in Shijiazhuang,which was an effective method for the pollution warning.