水文气象极值统计推断的可靠性问题

论述极值统计推断不可靠的表现、产生原因及提高可靠性的途径、可操作性方法和可靠性评价。提出收敛域准则、极大似然估计的精估计和粗估计、泛似然估计、多母体现象,应用超拟合现象、抽样误差、蒙特卡罗随机模拟等概念或方法,得出全国各气象站多个气象要素的可靠极值统计推断结果,初步形成小样本统计理论。

Reliability problem of extreme value statistical inference for hydrology and meteorology

This paper discusses the unreliability of extreme value statistical inference,its presentation,causes and ways of improving the reliability,practical methods and reliability evaluation.It advances the possibility of applying the phenomenon of super-fitting,sampling error,the domain of convergence criteria,the maximum likelihood estimation of refined estimates and rough estimates,the pan-likelihood estimation,multi-parent phenomenon,Monte Carlo stochastic simulation concepts or methods;and obtained reliable results of the extreme value statistical inference for the multiple meteorological elements of various weather station.The theory of small-sample statistics is initially formed.