长江南京潮水位站近百年高潮位变化特征及成因分析

为研究南京站多年来年最高潮位的变化特征,根据水文变异综合诊断方法,分析检验了长江南京站近百年高潮潮位变化的整体趋势;利用db N系列小波变换分析了年高潮潮位变化的局部趋势;利用复数Morlet小波分析了年最高潮位的周期变化规律。分析结果表明,南京站年最高潮位序列总体上无明显趋势变化,局部变化趋势明显;年最高潮位存在5a、11a、42a和63a时间尺度四个主要变化周期。分析结果为认识南京站年最高潮位变化、做好水安全工作以及水资源的开发利用提供相关依据。

Variation Characteristics of Annual Maximum High Tide Level at Nanjing Station of Yangtze River

To study the variation characteristics of the annual maximum high tide level at the Nanjing Station, the comprehensive diagnosis method was used to analyze the variation tendency of the annual maximum high tide level, dbN series wavelet and Complex Morlet wavelet were employed to carry out wavelet analysis for the anomaly series. The results show that there is no significant variation tendency for the general series of the annual maximum high tide level at the Nanjing Station, but significant local tendency was found; four main variation periods for time scale of 5, 11, 40 and 63 years were found with Wavelet analysis. The analysis may be helpful to some extent for realization of the changing pattern of the tide level at the Nanjing Station, local water security and reasonable development of water resources.