1982年以来中国省级区域城市化水平趋势

城镇人口数据不一致的问题非常严重, 几乎没有系统的省级区域城市化数据。这种情况部分是因为人口普查城镇人口定义的变化,部分是由城镇设置标准的变动引起的。人口普查是全国和各省区城镇人口数据的重要来源。但是由于人口普查的城镇人口定义在不断变化,城镇人口数据很多是前后不一致的,必须进行相应调整。本文首先讨论改革时期新的城市化进程,澄清城镇人口定义的变化,然后概括地说明估计全国和区域城镇人口所用的一个基于双轨城市化概念模式的区域方法。将调整后的1982年和2000年人口普查得到的城镇人口作为计算的基础数据,对1982~2000年中国各省的城市化水平进行估计。在估计结果的基础上,分析1982~2000年中国城市化过程的主要空间特征。揭示了1982~2000中国省级区域城市化发展的主要趋势。本文最后为将来城镇人口的统计提出一些建议。

Analysis of the Trends of Urbanization Levels in Chinese Provinces since 1982

The problem of inconsistent urban population data is very serious and there is no systematic urbanization data for provincial regions in China. Such situation is caused, partly by frequent changes in the definition of urban population in population censuses and partly by changes in the criteria for the designation of cities and towns. Population census is an important source of national and provincial urban population data. But such data are not consistent due to changes in the definition of urban population in various censuses. These urban population data must be adjusted. This paper discusses the new urbanization process in the reform period first. Then the changing definitions of urban population in various censuses are clarified. A regional approach based on the concept of dual-track urbanization for estimating national and regional urban population data is proposed. Using adjusted urban population data from the 1982 and 2000 population censuses as the benchmark, an annual data series of provincial levels of urbanization is estimated for the period 1982-2000. Based on the estimation results, the major trends of urbanization in Chinese provinces are identified. Some suggestions are proposed for the statistical development of urban population in the future.