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Statistical interpretation of the daily variation of urban water consumption in Beijing,China
Authors:Danwu Zhang  Zhentao Cong  Tie Chen  Tong Zhang
Institution:1. State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China;2. Beijing Water Authority, Beijing, China;3. Beijing Institute of Water, Beijing, China
Abstract:Abstract

The efficient planning and design of water networks, as well as the management and strategies of existing water supply systems, require accurate short-term water demand forecasts. In this study, a statistical model for the estimation of daily urban water consumption was developed. The model was applied to analyse and forecast the daily water consumption in the main district of Beijing, China, from 2006 to 2010. The model exhibited good performance with a coefficient of determination, R2, greater than 0.9 in both the calibration and validation periods. The results indicate that: (a) the 7-day moving average temperature is an efficient variable that can be used to depict water-use variation in a year; (b) a daily maximum temperature of 31.1°C and the occurrence of precipitation are two thresholds of water-use behaviour; and (c) the current day’s water consumption has a strong correlation with the consumption of one, two and seven days ago.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Yang

Citation Zhang, D.W., et al., 2013. Statistical interpretation of the daily variation of urban water consumption in Beijing, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 181–192.
Keywords:daily urban water consumption  time series analysis  statistical regression  threshold model  Beijing  China
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