Grid-enabled Monte Carlo analysis of the impacts of uncertain discharge rates on seawater intrusion in the Korba aquifer (Tunisia)

Abstract

The Korba aquifer, located in the north of Tunisia, suffers heavily from salinization due to seawater intrusion. In 2000, the aquifer was exploited from more than 9000 wells. The problem is that no precise information was recorded concerning the current extraction rates, their spatial distribution, or their evolution in time. In this study, a geostatistical model of the exploitation rates was constructed based on a multi-linear regression model combining incomplete direct data and exhaustive secondary information. The impacts of the uncertainty on the spatial distribution of the pumping rates on seawater intrusion were evaluated using a 3-D density-dependent groundwater model. To circumvent the large amount of computing time required to run transient models, the simulations were run in a parallel fashion on the Grid infrastructure provided by the Enabling Grid for E-Science in Europe project. Monte Carlo simulations results showed that 8.3% of the aquifer area is affected by input uncertainty.

Citation Kerrou, J., Renard, P., Lecca, G. & Tarhouni, J. (2010 Kerrou, J., Renard, P. and Tarhouni, J. 2010. Status of the Korba groundwater resources (Tunisia): observations and three-dimensional modelling of seawater intrusion. Hydrogeol. J., 18(5): 1173–1190. doi:10.1007/s10040-010-0573-5[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) Grid-enabled Monte Carlo analysis of the impacts of uncertain discharge rates on seawater intrusion in the Korba aquifer (Tunisia). Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1325–1336.