Mapping of climatic parameters under climate change impacts in Iran

ABSTRACT

This research aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation of climate change effects on temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration over the country of Iran for the time periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099, and under scenarios A2 and B2. After preparation of measured temperature and precipitation data and calculation of potential evapotranspiration for the base time period of 1960–1990 for 46 meteorological stations (with a nationwide distribution), initial zoning of these three parameters over the country was attempted. Maximum and minimum temperatures and values of precipitation were obtained from the HadCM3 model under scenarios A2 and B2 for the three time periods, and these data were downscaled. Corresponding maps were prepared for the three parameters in the three time periods, and spatial and temporal variations of these climatic parameters under scenarios A2 and B2 were extracted and interpreted. Results showed that the highest increase in temperature would occur in western parts of the country, but the highest increase of potential evapotranspiration would occur in the central region of Iran. However, precipitation would vary temporally and spatially in different parts of the country depending on the scenario used and the time period selected.

Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor not assigned