Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land-cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed |
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Authors: | Heyin Chen |
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Institution: | 1. Geography Department, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, Ohio 45221, USAsusanna.tong@uc.edu |
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Abstract: | AbstractChanges in climate and land cover are among the principal variables affecting watershed hydrology. This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic impacts of climate and land-cover changes in the semi-arid Lower Virgin River (LVR) watershed located upstream of Lake Mead, Nevada, USA. The cell-based model is developed by considering direct runoff based on the Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method and surplus runoff based on the Thornthwaite water balance theory. After calibration and validation, the model is used to predict LVR discharge under future climate and land-cover changes. The hydrologic simulation results reveal climate change as the dominant factor and land-cover change as a secondary factor in regulating future river discharge. The combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will slightly increase river discharge in summer but substantially decrease discharge in winter. This impact on water resources deserves attention in climate change adaptation planning. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz |
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Keywords: | land-cover change climate change adaptation hydrologic impacts cell-based modeling |
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