Climatic effects on ice phenology and ice-jam flooding of the Athabasca River in western Canada |
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| Authors: | Prabin Rokaya Luis Morales-Marín Barrie Bonsal Howard Wheater Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada;2. School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canadaprabin.rokaya@usask.ca;4. Watershed Hydrology and Ecology Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada;5. School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada;6. Department of Civil, Geological, and Environmental Engineering, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada |
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| Abstract: | ABSTRACTIn cold region environments, any alteration in the hydro-climatic regime can have profound impacts on river ice processes. This paper studies the implications of hydro-climatic trends on river ice processes, particularly on the freeze-up and ice-cover breakup along the Athabasca River in Fort McMurray in western Canada, which is an area very prone to ice-jam flooding. Using a stochastic approach in a one-dimensional hydrodynamic river ice model, a relationship between overbank flow and breakup discharge is established. Furthermore, the likelihood of ice-jam flooding in the future (2041–2070 period) is assessed by forcing a hydrological model with meteorological inputs from the Canadian regional climate model driven by two atmospheric–ocean general circulation climate models. Our results show that the probability of ice-jam flooding for the town of Fort McMurray in the future will be lower, but extreme ice-jam flood events are still probable. |
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| Keywords: | ice-jam floods hydro-climatic trends ice phenology flood risk Athabasca River Canada |
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