Hydroclimatic flood trends in the northeastern United States and linkages with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns |
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| Authors: | William H. Armstrong Mathias J. Collins Noah P. Snyder |
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| Affiliation: | 1. INSTAAR and Department of Geological Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USAwilliam.armstrong@colorado.edu;3. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Restoration Center, Gloucester, Massachusetts, USA;4. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA |
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| Abstract: | AbstractWe evaluate flood magnitude and frequency trends across the Mid-Atlantic USA at stream gauges selected for long record lengths and climate sensitivity, and find field significant increases. Fifty-three of 75 study gauges show upward trends in annual flood magnitude, with 12 showing increases at p < 0.05. We investigate trends in flood frequency using partial duration series data and document upward trends at 75% of gauges, with 27% increasing at p < 0.05. Many study gauges show evidence for step increases in flood magnitude and/or frequency around 1970. Expanding our study area to include New England, we find evidence for lagged positive relationships between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation phase and flood magnitude and frequency. Our results suggest hydroclimatic changes in regional flood response that are related to a combination of factors, including cyclic atmospheric variability and secular trends related to climate warming affecting both antecedent conditions and event-scale processes.Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor H. Lins |
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| Keywords: | flooding hydroclimatology Mid-Atlantic USA northeastern USA partial duration series |
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