Prediction of climate change effects on the runoff regime of a forested catchment in northern Iran |
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| Authors: | Farhad Hajian Bagher Zahabiyoun Maia Ibsen |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Civil Engineering and Construction (since renamed School of Natural and Built Environments), Kingston University, Kingston upon Thames, UK;2. Department of Civil Engineering, Neyshabur Branch, Islamic Azad University, Neyshabur, Iran;3. Water Resources Engineering Group, School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Narmak, Tehran, Iran;4. Centre for Engineering, Environment and Society Research, School of Natural and Built Environments, Kingston University, Kingston upon Thames, UK |
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| Abstract: | ABSTRACTThe southern coast of the Caspian Sea in northern Iran is bordered by a mountain range with forested catchments which are susceptible to droughts and floods. This paper examines possible changes to runoff patterns from one of these catchments in response to climate change scenarios. The HEC-HMS rainfall–runoff model was used with downscaled future rainfall and temperature data from 13 global circulation models, and meteorological and hydrometrical data from the Casilian (or “Kassilian”) Catchment. Annual and seasonal predictions of runoff change for three future emissions scenarios were obtained, which suggest significantly higher spring rainfall with increased risk of flooding and significantly lower summer rainfall leading to a higher probability of drought. Flash floods arising from extreme rainfall may become more frequent, occurring at any time of year. These findings indicate a need for strategic planning of water resource management and mitigation measures for increasing flood hazards. EDITOR M.C. Acreman ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned |
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| Keywords: | Northern Iran climate change runoff modelling weather generator rainfall patterns |
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