Frequency of debris flows and rockfall along the Mendoza river valley (Central Andes), Argentina: Associated risk and future scenario |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University in Prague, Albertov 6, 128 43 Prague 2, Czech Republic;2. Institute of Applied Geology, Department of Civil Engineering and Natural Hazards, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Straße 70, 1190 Vienna, Austria;3. Department of the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Global Change Research Centre, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00, Brno, Czech Republic;4. Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Universitätsstrasse 7, 1190 Vienna, Austria;1. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;1. Volcanic Risk Solutions, Institute of Agriculture and Environment, Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, New Zealand;2. Department of Conservation, PO Box, Turangi, New Zealand;1. Centre for Glaciology, Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, 33 GMS Road, Dehra Dun 248001, India;2. Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, 33 GMS Road, Dehra Dun 248001, India;3. Department of Geology and Geophysics, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur 721302, India;4. Center for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur 721302, India;5. Chhattisgarh Council of Science and Technology, Vigyan Bhavan, Vidhan Sabha Road, Daldal Seoni, Raipur, CG 492014, India |
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| Abstract: | The frequency of debris flows and rockfalls was estimated by temporal distribution of these events during the last 50 years. This parameter was expressed by annual probability of occurrence and mean interval of recurrence of historical events. More recurrent events in this sector of the Central Andes are associated with the Guido locality and tunnels situated along International road No. 7. Furthermore, these events are more frequent in Cordillera Frontal where the mean recurrence interval was lower than in Precordillera. The maximum interval of recurrence is rarely greater than 20 years, showing the activity of these events on human lives and infrastructure in this region. The accuracy of the determined recurrence frequency is discussed. A future scenario indicates that landslides will be probably more frequent under global climate change. As a consequence, those most vulnerable elements in the region, the international access routes, may be severely damaged in the future, implying an adverse impact in our regional economy. |
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