Temporary seismic quiescence: SE Turkey

Summary. The Border Zone that is the contact of the Arabian plate with the three plates of Turkey, Eurasia and Iran to the north has been remarkably aseismic during this century. By extending the period of observation backwards in time by a few centuries it is shown that this seismicity is atypical of the long-term behaviour of the zone and due to a quiescent period in the activity of the area during the 20th Century. In turn, this implies that short-term data alone do not provide a reliable assessment of earthquake hazard.