World-wide increase in tropospheric methane, 1978–1983

Tropospheric concentrations of methane in remote locations have averaged a yearly world-wide increase of 0.018±0.002 parts per million by volume (ppmv) during the period from January 1978 to December 1983. The concentrations in the north temperate zone are always greater than those in the south temperate zone by 7±1% because the major methane sources are all predominantly located in the northern hemisphere. The average world-wide tropospheric concentration of methane in dry air was 1.625 ppmv at the end of 1983, measured against an NBS standard certified as 0.97 ppmv (but with an accuracy of only ±1%). The world-wide concentration increases are described by a linear equation with a standard deviation of 0.003 ppmv for ten different collection periods during 1978–1983. The precision of measurement of the methane concentration in the atmospheric samples and in the standard was measured to be ±0.4% for each. Repetitive measurements of an air sample collected in November 1977 have shown the same concentration for six years with a standard deviation for these data of ±0.003 ppmv.The causes for the steady increase in methane concentration in the troposphere cannot be fixed with certainty from present data. Contributing causes can include increases in the source strengths from cattle and rice fields. The atmospheric concentrations of CO, CH₄ and HO are all closely coupled with one another, and increased concentrations of CO and/or CH₄ should cause reduced concentrations of HO, which in turn should lengthen the atmospheric lifetimes of CO and CH₄.Among other physical and chemical effects, a increase of 0.18 ppmv per decade should contribute a greenhouse warming of about 0.04°C per decade. Other secondary contributions to the greenhouse effect from increases in CH₄ may arise from methane-induced increases in stratospheric H₂O, in tropospheric O₃, and in numerous other trace species whose concentration is controlled by reaction with HO radicals.An increased CH₄ source strength may result from the effect of increasing atmospheric temperatures on the known aqueous biological CH₄ sources, such as swamps, and may be an added consequence of the greenhouse effect.