Tsunami mapping in the Gulf of Guayaquil,Ecuador, due to local seismicity

The North-Andean subduction zone generates recurrent tsunamigenic earthquakes. The seismicity is usually considered to be segmented because of different specific morphological features of the Nazca Plate driving the subduction motion. Most of the recent powerful earthquakes in the margin were located in its northern part. To the south, the region of the Gulf of Guayaquil, only (undocumented) three events in 1901, 1933 and 1953 were possibly powerful and tsunamigenic. Here we are interested in the tsunami signature due to local seismicity. Two realistic earthquake scenarios (M_w = 7 and M_w = 7.5) taking into account the hypothesized segmentation of the area are proposed. Their return period is supposed to be intra-centenary. Then, a larger magnitude unsegmented M_w = 8 scenario is computed (half-millennium return period). The interior of the Gulf of Guayaquil as well as the Santa Elena Peninsula are sheltered areas including numerous coastal infrastructures and the city of Guayaquil. It is predicted that potential flooding would occur at high tide only for both segmented and unsegmented scenarios in (1) south of Playas with however only a few centimeters of wave height and (2) Chanduy (a few meters). Both are important zones of coastal farms.