回归分析法在地下水动态分析中的应用

多年来,济南泉水断流的主因一直存在争议。本文根据济南泉域1960-2002年43年的地下水位、降雨量、市区开采量、外围开采量的统计资料,建立多元回归模型,找出影响泉域水位动态的因素。分析结果表明,济南泉域地下水动态变化分为两个阶段,上世纪六十年代（1960-1967年）,影响地下水位的主要因素为降雨量,上世纪七八十年代（1968-1989年）,影响地下水位的主要因素为开采量,尤其是外围开采量。在此基础上,对回归模型进行了检验和预测,在模拟时间内的平均误差为2.1%,预测阶段内的平均误差为5.08%,与实际情况基本符合。

Application of Regression Analysis in the Groundwater Dynamic Analysis

For many years,there exists argument about the main reason of Jinan Spring drying up.The artiCle is based on the statistic data of the Groundwater level,rainfall,urban extraction,external extraction in Jinan Spring area,establishment of multiple regression model to identify the dynamic impact of spring water level domain factors.The results show that the dynamic change of groundwater in Jinan spring area is divided into two stages,the sixties of last century（1960-1967）,the main factors affecting the groundwater table,rainfall,seven eighties of last century（1968-1989 years）,the main factors affecting groundwater extraction,particularly the external exploitation.On this basis,the regression model was tested and predicted,for the simulation time period,the average error was 2.1%,for the forecast period,the average error is 5.08%,which is consistent with the actual situation.