基于集集强震群序列地震特征的地震追踪预测

分析集集强震群前余震序列的 7年 (1993/ 0 9/ 2 1— 2 0 0 0 / 0 9/ 2 0 )中震级规模在M =3 0以上的地震目录 ,可以找到前震类型、孕震空区特征、孕震条带特征、前震丛集性活动与信号震特征、主震前平静以及余震序列的二次余震等至少 6项清楚的地震序列特征。利用已发展出的年度强震趋势分析步骤的经验 ,佐以依据地震序列特征进一步加以追踪的观念 ,以集集地震序列分析为例 ,试图将地震趋势分析由年的时间尺度 ,追踪到更短的月的时间范围 ;并尝试建立台湾地区西部地震带浅源强震的追踪分析步骤 ,并为以测震学为基础的地震预测提供逼近短临时间尺度的分析方法。

SEISMIC TRACE FORECASTING BASED UPON CHI-CHI EARTHQUAKE SERIES SEISMICITY

Based upon the earthquake data recorded by Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan, 6 abnormal phenomena occurred during 921 Chi Chi earthquake series including foreshocks and aftershocks.These 6 abnormal phenomena can be categorized as (1) foreshock patterns, (2) seismic quiescence before a main shock, (3) seismic gaps, (4) seismic strips, (5) seismic activity of clusters in aftershock region, and (6) secondary aftershocks.From the point of seismicity, using these aforementioned characteristics, the seismic trace forecasting procedures to strong shallow earthquakes in the convergent boundary in western Taiwan can be identified.