Dynamic issues in the SE South America storm surge modeling |
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Authors: | Paula Etala |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Meteorology, Naval Hydrographic Service, Comodoro Py 2055, 1104 Buenos Aires, Argentina |
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Abstract: | The ability of the SMARA storm surge numerical prediction system to reproduce local effects in estuarine and coastal winds
was recently improved by considering one-way coupling of the air–sea momentum exchange through the wave stress, and best forecasting
practices for downscaling. The inclusion of long period atmospheric pressure forcing in tide and tide/surge calculations corrected
a systematic error in the surge, produced by the South Atlantic Ocean quasi-stationary pressure patterns. The maximum forecast
range for the storm surge at Buenos Aires provided by the real-time use of water level observations is approximately 12 h.
The best available water level prediction is the 6-h forecast (nowcast) based on the closest water level observations. The
24-h forecast from the numerical models slightly improves this nowcast. Although the numerical forecast accuracy degrades
after the first 48 h, the improvement to the full range observation-based prediction is maintained at the inner Río de la
Plata area and extends to the first 3 days at the intermediate navigation channels. |
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