德尔菲法在全国铁铝资源潜力评价中的应用

探讨了德尔菲法2种赋值方法的优缺点,分析了德尔菲法的原理和流程。全国矿产资源潜力评价项目在已经完成铁铝两个矿种预测的基础上,以省(自治区和直辖市)为单位,组织专家运用德尔菲法对全国铁铝矿产的资源量进行了评估,这是德尔菲法第一次在全国范围内进行预测。本次德尔菲预测中给定3个累计概率值:90%、50%、10%,由专家来填写资源量,借助于矿产资源评价的相关软件,在对数据进行一系列检验、调整、再检验的过程后,对3个预测深度500m以浅、1000m以浅和2000m以浅(铝土矿不包含此深度)进行了资源量预测,各省区市预测结果经过汇总整理后,经专家研究论证,认为此次德尔菲法预测铁铝资源量合理有效,全国铁铝资源前景较为乐观。

Application of Delphi method in national iron and aluminum resources assessment in China

The authors discusses the merits and shortcomings of two means of Delphi value-assigning, and analyzed the principles and procedures of Delphi. In the national mineral resources potential assessment project, experts are invited to assess overall iron and aluminum resource in China province by province. This is the first time that Delphi method was applied in mineral assessment around China. During the execution, three probability values was given: 90%, 50%, 10%, and the experts gave their opinion, then by means of relative software, data will be verified, adjusted, reverified. Resources within three depth range can thus be obtained: within 500 meters, within 1000 meters, and within 2000 meters (not for bauxite). The result of the assessment is regarded to be reasonable and effective, the future of China minerals iron and aluminum is good.