基于指数趋势模型的卡尔曼滤波法在危岩体变形分析中的应用

以指数趋势模型为基础，建立卡尔曼滤波模型对链子崖危岩体GA监测点的位移量进行预测。首先，把非线性的指数趋势模型经线性化处理后转化成线性模型，用线性最小二乘法求出线性化后的模型参数，再将线性化后的模型参数看作带有动态噪声的状态向量，建立卡尔曼滤波模型，以此模型为基础，对危岩体的位移量进行预测。实例计算表明，用卡尔曼滤波模型对危岩体的位移量进行预测，其预测误差较小，效果较为理想。

Application of Kalman filter method to hazardous rock mass deformation analysis based on exponential trend model

Based on the exponential trend model, the Kalman filter model is applied to forecasting displacement values at observation point in Lianziya hazardous rock mass GA. At first, nonlinear exponential trend model is linearized into linear model; and linearized model parameters are obtained using the linear least square method; the linearized model parameters are regarded as state vectors containing dynamic noises to erect Kalman filter model. On the basis of Kalman filter model, the displacement values of the hazardous rock mass are forecasted. An example of calculation shows that the forecast error is little and the forecast effect is good using Kalman filter model to forecast the displacement values of the hazardous rock mass .