滑坡蠕变时效稳定性理论与滑坡预测(报)研究的基本构想

滑坡的形成过程显示出其时效特征,已有研究显示滑坡的时效特征有助于滑坡的精确预测预报研究。本文在马克斯韦尔、开尔文、斋滕迪孝等人的研究基础上引入了岩土体粘-弹性滞后系数,以岩土材料试件在各种受力状态下的实际监测轨迹曲线为依据,采用拟合法,遵循曲线拐点形变量和形变率连续性导出关于时间的二元非线性超越代数方程组,并求得时效共轭点时间和剧滑失稳时间,最后得到滑坡蠕变时效可预测性的结论。

AGING STABILITY THEORY OF LANDSLIDE CREEP AND BASIC CONCEPTION OF LANDSLIDE PREDICTION

Formation of landslide shows its aging characteristics while it is revealed by the existing researches that the aging characteristics of landslide can help to predict and forecast the landslide precisely.On the basis of research findings achieved by Maxwell,Kelvin and Saitou Susumu Takashi etc.,the viscoelastic lag coefficient of rock-soil mass is introduced in this paper,together with the practical monitoring geometric locus of test piece of rock and soil materials under different strained conditions,and then the fitting process is adopted.On the premise of following the continuities of both deformation and degree of deformation of knee of curve,the binary nonlinear transcendental algebraic equations concerning time is deduced,and also the time of aging conjugate point and destabilization time caused by severe sliding are calculated,finally the conclusion in which the ageing of landslide creep can be predicted is obtained.