基于主体功能区的京津冀城市群碳收支时空分异与碳补偿分区

从主体功能区划视角研究碳收支和碳补偿分区,对于制定适应各主体功能区低碳发展策略,推动区域生态环境协同治理,实现高质量发展具有重要意义,也是地理学思想对于实现“双碳”目标的重要贡献。本文首先构建主体功能区视角下碳收支与碳补偿的理论框架,然后以京津冀城市群157个县级单元为研究区,引入集中化指数、标准显性比较优势指数、SOM-K-means聚类等方法研究功能区视角下京津冀城市群碳收支时空分异与碳补偿分区,并提出以低碳发展为导向的碳减排空间优化方案。结果表明：① 2000—2017年京津冀城市群碳收支量呈现波动上升态势,其集中化指数均高于0.4的“警戒线”,碳收支地区差异整体偏大。② 碳收支时空分异显著,碳排放高值区呈现以京津唐为中心,向外逐步降低的“核心—外围”空间格局;而碳吸收空间格局趋于稳定,总体呈现东、北、西部高,而中、南部低的倒“U”型格局。③ 京津冀城市群碳收支与主体功能区战略定位较为吻合,优化开发区和重点开发区是碳排放的主要承压区,而重点生态功能区是碳吸收的优势主导区,各功能区碳吸收集中化指数差别较碳排放集中化指数小。④ 京津冀城市群共有53个支付区、64个平衡区和40个获补区,结合主体功能区规划战略目标,最终形成9类碳补偿空间优化区,并提出每一类型区低碳发展方向及策略。⑤ 未来要加强更微观尺度的碳收支及碳补偿研究,丰富和完善碳补偿理论框架,将碳补偿融入到碳交易市场,探索实现“双碳”目标的多元化路径。

Spatio-temporal differentiation of carbon budget and carbon compensation zoning in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration based on the Plan for Major Function-oriented Zones

The study of carbon budget and carbon compensation zoning from the perspective of major function-oriented zoning is of great significance for formulating low-carbon development strategies for each functional area, promoting the collaborative governance of regional ecological environment and achieving high-quality development, as well as an important contribution of geographical thinking to the realization of emission peak and carbon neutrality. This paper first constructs the theoretical framework of carbon budget and carbon compensation from the perspective of major function-oriented zoning, and then takes 157 county-level units of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration as the study area, and introduces the Concentration Index, Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage Index and the SOM- K- means model to study the spatio-temporal differentiation of carbon budget and carbon compensation zoning of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from the perspective of major function-oriented zoning. The study puts forward a spatial optimization scheme of carbon emission reduction oriented by low- carbon development. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2017, the carbon budget of the study area shows an upward trend of volatility, and its centralization index is higher than the "warning line" of 0.4, and overall, there are large regional differences. (2) There are significant regional differences in carbon budget, and carbon emissions show a core-periphery spatial pattern with Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan as the main high-value center with a gradually decreasing outward; however, the spatial pattern of carbon absorption tends to be stable, showing an inverted "U-shaped" pattern, which is high in the east, north and west, and low in the middle and south. (3) The carbon budget of the study area is consistent with the strategic positioning of the major function-oriented zoning. Optimized development zone and key development zone are the main pressure-bearing areas of carbon emissions, while key ecological functional zone is the dominant area of carbon absorption. The difference of carbon absorption centralization index among functional zones is smaller than that of carbon emission centralization index. (4) There are 53 payment areas, 64 balance areas and 40 obtaining areas in the study area. Combined with the strategic objectives of the major function-oriented zoning, 9 types of carbon compensation space optimization areas are finally formed, and the low-carbon development directions and strategies are proposed for each type of area. (5) In the future, it is urgent to strengthen the research on carbon balance and horizontal carbon compensation in a more micro scale, enrich the theoretical framework of regional carbon compensation, integrate regional horizontal carbon compensation into the carbon trading market, and explore the diversified paths so as to achieve the goal of emission peak and carbon neutrality.