浙江省高温精细化的评估方法

利用浙江省历史上144例高温过程研究建立了高温精细化评估方法,首先根据高温日数和高温累积量两项指标构建单站高温强度评估模型并将单站高温强度划分为"特强、强、较强、一般"4个等级,再根据1～4级高温范围和平均高温强度等指标构建全省高温强度评估模型,将全省高温强度也划分为同样Ⅰ～Ⅳ个等级;通过计算验证了该方法;另外评估结果显示,浙江省Ⅳ级以上高温平均每年可出现2.8次,近年来Ⅰ级(特强)高温有多发和重发的趋势;以杭州的西南部、金华的大部分以及丽水的中北部地区高温致灾危险性指数为最高(高危险区),从内陆到沿海、中部向南北两侧相应由"较高危险区→中等危险区→较低危险区"过渡,海岛及沿海个别地区属相对低危险区。

Fine Assement Method for High Temperature in Zhejiang Province

The fine assement method for high temperature is established based on 144 high temperature cases in Zhejiang province.Firstly,according to the number of high-temperature days and cumulative value of high-temperature,we construct high-temperature intensity assement model for single station.The high-temperature intensity of single station is divided into four levels： strongest,stronger,strong,normal.Secondly,based on the high-temperature weather coverage and average high-temperature intensity,the model for provincial high-temperature intensity assessement with 4 level is thus established.The method turns out to be simple but practical by verification and in real-time assements,showing the fine-scale distribution of the high-temperature disaster risk in Zhejiang province.The assessment result shows that the level-IV high temperature events occure 2.8 times anually and the level-I（strongest） high temperature event show an increasing trend in frequency and intensity.