家庭送养的时空演化及决策机制

中国民间抱养行为由来已久，家庭送养的决策将完全改变儿童的生存和发展的轨迹。囿于送养的隐蔽性和复杂性，且相关研究匮乏，亟需系统性的剖析。文章基于公益平台寻亲数据，运用社会网络、空间分析、数理统计以及地理探测器的方法，探究1981—2010年家庭送养的时空分异特征，并进一步归纳送养决策的流程及原因机制。结果表明：1）送养主体为未满1周岁女童。2）送养人数在时间上呈现“先增后减”的倒“U”型分布，在空间上主要分布在中国东部、中部以及川渝地区。3）家庭送养原因以经济贫困为主，违反生育政策的影响次之。当家庭面临狭小的生育空间时，重男轻女的思想会被强化。4）地理探测器结果揭示，人口因素是影响送养空间分异最主要的原因，自然灾害、计划生育和经济因素在不同时期产生较大影响。5）基于理性选择理论提出了多尺度下的家庭送养的影响机制，认为家庭在作理性送养决策时，往往遵循生存理性、经济理性、制度理性以及社会理性的原则。

Space-Time Evolution and Decision-Making Mechanism of Sending Children out for Adoption

Sending children out for adoption has a long history. It completely changes the trajectory of children's survival and development. Trapped in the complexity, concealment, and dispersion of this behavior, the relevant definition is controversial and research data is difficult to obtain,the systemic and deep understanding are urgently needed. Based on public welfare website cases, this study uses social networks, spatial analysis, mathematical statistics and Geodetector to explore the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of informal adoption-out from 1981 to 2010 and further summarize the process and causal mechanism of informal adoption-out. The results are as follows: (1) Adopted children are mostly females under one-year of age. The young age of the group is because of the birth families' independent decision-making. Influenced by contemporary birth policy, economic conditions, and other factors, they make decisions as early as possible. During the family planning period, the number of children was strictly controlled. Influenced by the preference for sons, some families gave up girls to have the opportunity to have boys. Traditional fertility concepts have been highlighted in the narrow fertility space. (2) Over time, an inverted U-shaped distribution of "increasing first and decreasing later" is presented. From 1981 to 1983, adopted children were mainly affected by the family's economic situation. The violation of the birth policy became the dominant factor around 1990. Spatially, it is mainly distributed in the eastern, central Sichuan-Chongqing regions of China. (3) Economic poverty, birth-policy violations, son preference, and family accidents can explain about 90% of informal adopted-out cases. Children are most likely to be dispatched when the survival and development of families and children cannot be guaranteed. (4) Population factors are the most important factors affecting the spatial distribution. Natural disasters, birth control, and economic factors have a greater impact on each period in that order. The time interval interaction detection result shows that, when families are faced with poverty and change (for example, parent is ill or dies), the probability of children being sent out for adoption greatly increases. A parent's absence will not only worsen the family's economic situation, but also reduce the emotional willingness to raise children. (5) Based on the rational choice theory, this study posits the influencing mechanism of sending children out for adoption: Culture, the fertility system, laws, and the economy constitute the macro environment of informal adoption, which also thoroughly affects family decision-making. As a basic research unit, the collection of decision-making results has both similarities and regional characteristics in macro. In 2015, China enacted the "Two-child policy," which may have led to a large number of adoptions. The goal of adoption has gradually shifted from "maximizing the interests of the family" to "maximizing the rights and interests of children." Therefore, we should learn from historical experience, rapidly improve the laws related to adoption, clarify the legal boundaries of children sent out by birth families, and combat the occurrence of crimes such as child trafficking, so as to protect their legitimate rights and interests.