1998—2020年中国时间银行的时空分布特征及其驱动因素——基于百度资讯

利用1998—2020年百度资讯中关于时间银行成立的新闻报道，通过人工判读，提取其成立的时间与地点，分析时间银行的时空分布特征，并探讨其驱动因素。研究发现：1）时间银行在中国经历了3个发展时期，数量上总体呈现上升态势，其中第三个时期增幅最大；2）在城乡分布上，时间银行大多集中分布于城镇地区，并逐步向乡村地区发展；在省域分布上，绝大多数省份均已进行过对时间银行的探索工作，其中以江苏、湖北、浙江、广西等4省（区）数量最多；3）在空间分布上，时间银行最初呈现小范围零星分布，后逐渐发展为长三角、中原地区双中心的分布格局，基本集中于胡焕庸线以南，总体为“东南密-西北疏”；4）在空间关系上，时间银行从最初的空间发散逐步发展为空间集聚，集聚程度不断加强且趋于稳定，空间均质性逐渐增强，异质性逐渐减弱；5）时间银行发展的驱动因素包括人口结构、养老建设水平、经济发展水平、政府支持力度、志愿队伍建设以及数字技术水平等，其中第一个时期养老建设水平较为重要，而第二和第三个时期政府支持力度、经济发展水平更重要。最后，建议加大对时间银行的探索工作，减少对社会经济发展等指标的依赖，从而为其在农村、西北和东北等欠发达地区平衡发展提供可行性路径；也应加强政府支持力度，引导多方参与，为时间银行可持续发展提供保障。

Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics and Driving Factors of China's Time Banking from 1998 to 2020: Based on Baidu Information

Combining the development history of mutual assistance and old-age care of Time Banking under the background of aging in China has important reference significance for addressing the Time Banking development dilemma. Using news reports on the establishment of Time Banking in Baidu from 1998 to 2020, this study extracts the time and place of its establishment through manual interpretation, and analyzes the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of Time Banking. Additionally, it discusses the driving factors and differentiation mechanism to restore the development history of Time Banking from the perspective of social attention and provide a useful reference for its current status from the perspective of geography. It was found that: 1) Time Banking has experienced three periods of development in China, and the number of branches has shown an overall upward trend, among which the third period had the largest increase. 2) In terms of urban and rural distribution, Time Banking was mostly concentrated in urban areas and gradually spread to rural areas. In the provincial distribution, most provinces had already explored Time Banking, among which Jiangsu, Hubei, Zhejiang, Guangxi, and four other provinces (regions) had the largest number. 3) The spatial distribution of Time Banking initially showed a small sporadic distribution, which then gradually developed into a double-center distribution pattern in the Central Plains of the Yangtze River Delta. These were concentrated south of the Hu Huanyong line and was generally "dense in the southeast-sparse in the northwest". 4) In terms of the spatial relationship, Time Banking develops gradually from the initial spatial divergence to a spatial agglomeration. The degree of agglomeration is constantly strengthened, tends to be stable, the spatial homogeneity is gradually enhanced, and the heterogeneity is gradually weakened. 5) The driving factors of Time Banking development include population structure, old-age construction level, economic development level, government support, volunteer team construction, and digital technology level. Among them, the old-age construction level is more important in the first period, while the government support level and economic development level are more important in the second and third periods. Finally, it is suggested to increase the exploration of Time Banking and reduce the dependence on social and economic development indicators to provide a feasible path for their balanced development in underdeveloped areas, such as the northwest and northeast rural areas. Additionally, government support should be strengthened and multi-stakeholder participation guided to guarantee the sustainable development of Time Banking.