中国人口户籍迁移与非户籍迁移的比较

现阶段中国的人口迁移分为户籍迁移和非户籍迁移两类,对二者的比较和整合分析有助于深化对国内人口迁移的理论认识,也便于与国际同类研究相衔接。本文估算了2011—2017年中国地级及以上城市的户籍与非户籍净迁移人口数量,分析和比较了二者的基本空间格局特征及影响因素。结果表明：户籍和非户籍迁移具有总体相似的空间正相关和内陆分异的局部聚类特征,东部沿海三大城市群间具有明显的差异性,两类迁移人口在城市间的分布特征不同且非户籍迁移数量的极差比户籍迁移更大,两类迁移的新增数量均与已有流动人口存量正相关;新增户籍迁移受经济机会差异影响明显,一些经济水平较高的大城市凭借人才政策吸引人口户籍迁入,非户籍迁移主要响应教育、医疗等公共服务差异;户籍迁移的市场化特征随落户限制的放松而不断强化,但存在城市和人口的双向选择性,非户籍迁移出现从经济性迁移转向舒适性迁移的趋势。最后从理论和政策角度探讨了中国人口迁移转型与户籍制度改革方向。

Hukou and non-hukou migration in China: Patterns,determinants and policy implications

The household registration (hukou) system divides China's internal migration into two types: hukou and non-hukou migration. Hukou migration is also known as permanent migration, while non-hukou migration is temporary migration. Permanent migrants are those whose registered place is the same as their regular residence place, and temporary migrants otherwise. Most temporary rural-urban migrants without local hukou cannot obtain the same public services as urban inhabitants, which affects the improvement of the quality of urbanization. Hukou migration is the last step of population urbanization. However, existing studies mostly focus on non-hukou migration, but ignore hukou migration. Also, to connect the behaviors and intentions of hukou transfer, it is necessary to explore spatial patterns and determinants of hukou migration. The comparison and integration of hukou and non-hukou migration contributes to constructing an integrated conceptual framework of China's internal migration, which is an effective way to theorize and internationalize China's internal migration research. This paper estimates the scale of hukou and non-hukou net migration at prefecture-level cities across the country from 2011 to 2017. We analyze and compare the basic spatial patterns of the two, and explore their influencing factors. The results showed that hukou and non-hukou migration have overall similar spatial positive autocorrelation and different local clustering characteristics in inland regions. Although two types of migrants are primarily concentrated in three coastal regions, there are significant internal variations due to local urban system. It is easy to change residential location but difficult to obtain local hukou in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, but totally contrast in the other two regions. The scale distribution of non-hukou migration is more polarized than that of hukou migration. We also found that the growth of the two is positively correlated with the existing floating migrants. The cities with more floating migrants will attract more hukou and non-hukou migrants to flow in. Hukou migration mainly responds to differences in economic opportunities, whereas non-hukou migration mainly responds to differences in public services such as education and health care. Non-hukou migration has gradually shifted from economic-driven migration to amenity migration, while hukou migration showed stronger market-oriented characteristics than before. But behind that, there is two-way selectivity between the big city and the talent group. Finally, the paper discusses the transformation characteristics of China's internal migration and the reform direction of the hukou system from the perspective of theory and policy. We suggest the amenity-based urban growth strategy against the context of changing residents' demands.