中国电子信息制造业时空格局演化及影响因素

为探究后经济危机时期中国电子信息制造业的时空变化及其影响因素，基于基尼系数、空间相关性分析、负二项回归模型等方法，采用天眼查企业数据库以及相关城市统计年鉴数据，对2009－2018年中国电子信息制造业时空格局演化及影响因素进行分析，结果表明：1）中国电子信息制造业稳步发展，由出口导向转为内需拉动。2）企业主要集中在珠三角、长三角地区，长江中游城市群蓄势待发，中部及川渝地区的城市发展迅猛而东北地区陷入发展困境，企业空间分布存在显著的空间正相关关系。3）深圳、东莞等城市一直为产业重要集聚区，城市两级分化严重。3）总体上，企业更倾向于选址在产业协同集聚程度高、创新能力强、劳动力成本较高而经济后发城市；在城市群尺度，不同因素对不同城市群存在异质性，反映产业发展水平、特点存在很大差异，长三角企业偏好创新能力高、产业市场化水平高且交通基础设施完善的城市，珠三角企业偏好劳动力成本高的城市，京津冀城市偏好劳动力成本高且交通基础设施完善的城市，成渝地区企业偏好产业市场化水平高且创新能力弱的后发城市，长江中游城市偏好劳动力成本高的后发城市。

The Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry in China

After the global economic crisis of 2008, China's electronic information manufacturing industry faced the dual challenge of expanding the scale of agglomeration and improving growth quality. The spatiotemporal pattern of the development of the electronic information industry is constantly changing because of globalization, national policies, and local production networks. To understand the spatiotemporal changes and mechanisms of the Chinese electronic information manufacturing industry in the post-economic crisis period, this study uses electronic information manufacturing enterprises (EIMEs) at the city scale from 2009 to 2018 as the research object, and uses the Gini coefficient, spatial correlation analysis, and negative binomial regression model to analyze the evolution of the spatiotemporal pattern of the Chinese electronic information manufacturing industry and its influencing factors from 2009 to 2018. The main conclusions are: (1) The characteristics of the spatiotemporal evolution of the electronic information manufacturing industry are as follows. On a national scale, the Chinese electronic information manufacturing industry is developing rapidly, but its development is unstable due to the influence of the international situation. At the scale of the city cluster, the electronic information manufacturing industry mainly concentrates on the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River are ready for development. At the city level, the ranking of the top ten cities in China is stable. The cities in the central region and Sichuan-Chongqing regions are developing rapidly, while cities in northeast China are in a developmental dilemma. Spatial correlation analysis revealed a significant positive spatial correlation between the distribution of EIMEs in China. (2) The empirical analysis of location choice shows that there is heterogeneity among different city clusters owing to different factors. At the national level, EIMEs are more likely to be located in cities with high labor costs, a high degree of industrial collaborative agglomeration, strong local innovation ability, and low economic development. Enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta region prefer cities with high innovation abilities. In contrast, those in the Chengdu-Chongqing city cluster prefer cities with low innovation abilities. Labor costs have a positive effect in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Industrial collaborative agglomeration has a positive impact on the Chengdu-Chongqing region. The level of industrial marketization has a positive effect on the Yangtze River Delta and the Chengdu-Chongqing city clusters. The economic development level negatively affects the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Chengdu-Chongqing city cluster. The level of transportation infrastructure has a positive effect on the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The minor contributions of this study include two aspects: In terms of theoretical contribution, this study enriches the theoretical results of research on the electronic information industry in economic geography and provides a specific reference for research on other sectors. In a practical sense, this study is conducive to an in-depth understanding of the changes and development trends of China's electronic information manufacturing industry in the post-economic crisis period and provides a reference for local governments to formulate corresponding industrial development strategies and policies and promote the upgrading of China's industrial structure and the coordinated development of the regional economy.