东北地区战略性新兴产业发展水平时空演变与影响因素研究

战略性新兴产业是国家经济发展中的重要支撑,探究东北地区相关产业发展水平时空演变特征与影响因素对促进区域经济及产业创新发展具有重要意义。论文借助天眼查软件获取辽宁、吉林、黑龙江3省2009、2014、2019年3个时间节点的A股、新三板上市企业数据,利用马尔科夫链、空间自相关等方法分析其战略性新兴产业发展水平的时空演变特征,进而利用地理探测器模型对其影响因素进行深入分析与探究。研究发现：① 东北地区战略性新兴产业发展水平不断提升,增长速度放缓;东北地区各类战略性新兴产业发展水平均实现等级跨越式发展,达到高水平的产业则平稳发展。② 东北地区战略性新兴产业发展水平中部“极区”、南部“S型极带”现象加强,集聚特征减弱,省域空间分异逐渐增强;各类产业发展水平空间重心南移,扩散与集聚效应并存。③ 各影响因素发挥作用不同,多种因素共同作用影响东北地区战略性新兴产业的发展水平格局演变。

Spatiotemporal change of strategic emerging industries in Northeast China and influencing factors

Strategic emerging industries are important support for national economic development. It is of great significance to explore the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the development level of related industries in Northeast China to promote regional economy and industrial innovation development. Using the Tianyancha software to extract the A-shares and the new over-the-counter market listed company data in 2009, 2014, and 2019 for Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang provinces and applying the methods of Markov chain, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and geographical detector model, this study explored the spatial and temporal change of strategic emerging industry development level and analyzed its influencing factors. The results show that: 1) The development level of strategic emerging industries in Northeast China is constantly improving, and the growth rate is slowing down. All types of strategic emerging industries in Northeast China have achieved leap-forward development, while the industries at a high development level have achieved steady development. 2) The development level of strategic emerging industries in Northeast China is characterized by a "polar area" in the central part of the region and a "S-shaped polar zone" in the south. Spatial agglomeration is weakened, and the spatial differentiation of the provinces is gradually enhanced. The spatial centers of gravity of development level of various industries have shifted southward, with both diffusion and agglomeration effects. 3) Different factors play different roles, and multiple factors jointly affect the change of the development level and spatial pattern of strategic emerging industries in Northeast China.