机场群航线网络竞合评价方法及实证探讨——以粤港澳大湾区世界级机场群为例

航线网络是机场群市场竞争－合作（竞合）的重要内容。借助图论、集合论、产业经济等理论方法，从整体性市场及交互式市场两个视角探索并建立机场群航线网络竞合关系的量化评价模型，并基于粤港澳大湾区世界级机场群开展实证分析，研究表明：1）从整体市场竞争视角分析，大湾区机场群航点竞合市场由完全垄断市场与弱合作市场主导，但竞争程度在逐步强化；同类通航点的航线竞合指数存在较大的差异性及复杂性，但竞争程度也呈现加剧态势。2）从交互式竞争视角分析，大湾区机场群航线网络的竞合格局整体呈现由合作型向竞争型转变的态势，且航线竞争水平大于通航航点竞争。

Co-Opetition on Airport Agglomeration's Air Transport Network: A Case Study of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

The status and role of airport agglomeration in China's airport system is becoming increasingly important, and air transport networks have received attention from multidisciplinary fields such as transportation planning, transport geography, and transport economics. Based on the analysis of the structural characteristics of airport agglomeration in China's air transport network, this study innovatively constructs an evaluation framework for the co-opetition relationship of airport agglomeration with the help of graph theory, set theory, and industrial economics theoretical methods. Considering the topological connectivity and weighted strength of connected airports, this study establishes a quantitative evaluation model for the co-opetition relationship of the airport agglomeration's air transport network from the perspectives of the overall and interactive markets. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's airport agglomeration is a world-class airport agglomeration with the largest aviation traffic volume and a relatively mature market in China. Three large airports, Guangzhou (CAN), Hong Kong (HKG), and Shenzhen (SZX), occupy the leading positions in the Greater Bay Area. In recent years, the air transport network of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's airport agglomeration has mainly expanded to medium- and long-distance routes. With the construction-based evaluation method, we found the following: (1) From the perspective of overall market competition index, the co-opetition market of airport agglomeration in the Greater Bay Area is dominated by a complete monopoly market and a weak cooperative market. In 2019, the complete monopoly market accounted for 33.8%, a decrease of 4.1% compared with 2015. The market with weak cooperation accounted for 42.3%, and market share remained relatively stable. The market with weak competition accounted for 15.8% of the market, and the market share remained relatively stable. The market with strong competition accounted for 6.3%, a decrease of 4.5% from 2015. Based on the calculation and analysis of the weighted strength of connected airports, there are significant differences in the co-opetition indices of similarly connected airports. The level of competition in the overall market has intensified. (2) From the perspective of interactive competition, the interactive co-opetition market within the airport group in the Greater Bay Area is dominated by strong and weak cooperation markets. From the co-opetition index of airports connecting with the Greater Bay Area, there are ten pairs of airports belonging to the strong cooperation markets in 2019, i.e. between Guangzhou and Huizhou, Macau and Foshan, Hongkong and Zhuhai airports, a decrease of six compared with 2015. The weak cooperation markets in 2019 included ten pairs of airports, such as Guangzhou and Hong Kong, Hong Kong and Shenzhen, Macau and Huizhou, an increase of six pairs of airports compared with 2015. Based on the weighted strength of connected airports, this study analyzes the interactive competition patterns. In 2019, the strong cooperation markets included eight pairs of airports, including Guangzhou-Foshan, Guangzhou-Huizhou, and Hong Kong-Huizhou, a decrease of two pairs compared with 2015. The weak cooperation markets include eight pairs of airports, such as Guangzhou-Macau, Hong Kong-Shenzhen, and Macau-Shenzhen, a decrease of two pairs compared with 2015. The weak competitive markets include four pairs of airports, namely, Guangzhou-Hong Kong, Hong Kong-Macau, and Shenzhen-Zhuhai, an increase in three pairs of airports compared with 2015. In general, the co-opetition market pattern of the Greater Bay Area turns from a cooperative overall to a competitive transformation.