旅游产业集聚对旅游环境承载力的影响：基于面板门槛模型的实证检验（英文）

本文借助2000–2018年中国长三角城市群26个城市的面板数据，基于驱动-压力-状态-影响-响应（DPSIR）模型构建旅游环境承载力评价指标体系，采用区位商测度城市旅游经济的相对集聚水平，进一步构建面板门槛回归模型，检验旅游产业集聚与旅游环境承载力的非线性关系和门槛效应。研究结果表明：研究期内长三角城市群的旅游产业集聚和旅游环境承载力均呈现增长趋势，但旅游环境承载力存在阶段波动特征；26个城市的旅游产业集聚和旅游环境承载力表现出显著的区域差异，旅游产业集聚对旅游环境承载力的正向影响存在双重门槛效应，表现为先增强后减弱的作用关系。本文从旅游产业集聚视角探讨旅游环境承载力提升和调控路径，有助于地方政府有效统筹旅游产业集聚与可持续发展。

The Effects of Tourism Industry Agglomeration on Tourism Environmental Carrying Capacity: Evidence from a Panel Threshold Model

By utilizing the panel data of 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration of China from 2000 to 2018, this study constructs a panel threshold model to examine the nonlinear relationship between Tourism Environmental Carrying Capacity (TECC) and Tourism Industry Agglomeration (TIA). TECC is evaluated based on the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model, and TIA is estimated by the location quotient index. The analysis reveals that TIA and TECC both show growth trends and significant regional differences among the 26 cities, but the latter fluctuates at certain stages. Moreover, TIA has a significant double threshold effect on TECC, which shows that the positive impact of TIA is enhanced initially but then weakens afterwards. Theoretically, this study contributes to enriching the current literature on TECC from the perspective of TIA. Practically, it could help local governments effectively arrange agglomerations to promote the sustainable development of the tourism industry in China.