基于城乡人口变动视角的中国城镇化地域类型时空演变

城镇化是城镇和乡村人口变动共同作用的结果。本文从城乡人口变动的视角提出了城镇化地域类型的划分方法，基于历次全国人口普查数据，考察了中国城镇化地域类型的时空演变及其影响因素。研究发现中国的城镇化于1990年后进入快速阶段且当前仍在加速，但城镇化的实现路径存在较强的时空动态性：① 随着人口自然增长减缓和乡城迁移扩张，全国城镇化地域类型由城乡扩张型转变为城镇吸引型，乡村人口减少对城镇化的贡献持续增强；② 城镇吸引型是各地最主要的城镇化地域类型，但2010年以来大量地区因乡村人口加速外流而转变为乡村流失型，城乡扩张型地域的空间范围大幅收缩至西藏、上海等地，而城乡收缩型地域在东北地区的非省会城市大范围扩张；③ 经济性因素仍是当前中国城镇化的核心驱动因素，经济增长带动乡村人口外迁，工业化长期有利于城乡协调共进，而公共服务等社会性因素的作用仍然有限；④ 新型城镇化和乡村振兴的政策效应还有待发掘，西部城市群、中小城市的吸引力以及乡村地区的人口发展等问题仍需更多的研究关注。本文最后对中国城镇化的趋势性、动力机制和未来研究重点展开了讨论。

Urban-rural population change and the regional types evolution of China's urbanization

Urbanization is the outcome of population dynamics in both urban and rural areas, which has a profound influence on urban-rural development. This paper puts forward a method to identify regional types of urbanization from the perspective of urban-rural population change. Using this method and based on the census data, this paper analyzes the spatial pattern and influencing factors of China's urbanization. The results show that China has entered an era of rapid urbanization since 1990. Urbanization rates have risen in almost all regions, but with varied pathways over time and across regions. With the decline of natural population growth and the expansion of rural-urban migration, the process of urbanization depends more and more on rural population loss, leading to the transformation of urbanization regional type from "urban-rural growth" to "urban growth" in the country. Although the "urban growth" is the most common regional type of urbanization at both provincial and prefecture levels, the transformation of urbanization regional type from "urban growth" to "rural loss" has been witnessed in a large number of regions in the past decade. Besides, regions with the "urban-rural growth" type have shrunk to places such as Tibet and Shanghai while regions with the "urban-rural loss" type have expanded in non-provincial capital cities in Northeast China. At present, China's urbanization regional type is still driven by economic development: rural population declines faster in areas with rapid economic growth, leading to the "rural loss" urbanization; rapidly industrialized regions have undergone faster urban population growth and slower rural population loss than their counterparts; while the effect of social factors such as public services on urbanization regional type is limited. In addition, the impact of new urbanization strategy and rural revitalization strategy is not yet clear, given the limited attractiveness of urban agglomerations of the western region as well as small and medium-sized cities and the prevalence of rural population loss.