多维邻近性对流动人口回流意愿的影响——基于中国流动人口动态监测数据的实证

随着城市产业转型升级和县域经济快速发展,人口回流已成为现阶段中国人口迁移与流动过程中的重要组成部分,回流劳动力是乡村振兴和新型城镇化的重要力量,对于区域协调发展意义重大。距离是人口流动空间选择的核心解释变量,在多维邻近性视角下探究多种距离对流动人口回流的影响,有利于深化对人口回流机制的理解。论文借鉴多维邻近性分析框架,基于2016年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,采用二元Logistic回归模型探究地理、制度和社会邻近性对流动人口回流意愿的影响。研究表明：① 回流群体主要是受教育水平较低的大龄已婚流动人口,其在劳动力市场不占优势,但家庭对其情感需求与依赖较大,回流意愿明显。② 不同维度邻近性均对流动人口回流意愿有较强解释力,地理、制度和社会邻近性对回流意愿均有显著负向影响,长距离跨省或跨方言区迁移的劳动力回流意愿更为强烈。③ 不同邻近性对回流意愿的影响存在群体异质性。高学历群体回流意愿受其所在流入地参保情况的抑制,同时受到方言和地理距离的不同影响;新生代流动人口则较易受非正式制度邻近性影响而选择回流;长期外出劳动力的回流意愿会因其已熟悉流入地方言并在流入地积极参保而降低。

Influence of multi-proximities on floating population's return intention: An empirical study based on the China Migrant Population Dynamic Survey

Along with urban industrial upgrading and rural development, the return of floating population has become an important part of China's population movement. The returnees are becoming an important driver for rural revitalization and new-type urbanization. Distance is an important factor influencing population migration, but the impacts of distance on migrants' return-migration has not been understood well. Based on the data of China Migrant Population Dynamic Survey in 2016, a multi-proximity analysis framework and binary Logistic regression model were used to identify the role of distance in population return. The results show that: 1) Married people with older age and low-level of education, who have no advantage in the labor market, are the main part of returnees. They often have stronger return intention, as their families have a large emotional demand and dependence. 2) All the dimensions of proximity investigated in this study have significant impacts on the return intention of floating population. Geographical, institutional, and social proximities have a significant negative impact on return intention. People who migrated across provinces or dialects over a long-distance have a strong tendency to return. 3) The impact of multi-proximities on return intention showed heterogeneity in different groups. The return intention of highly educated migrants is restrained by the social security situation of their inflow places, at the same time, it is affected by dialect and geographical distance. The new generation floating population is more likely to choose to return under the influence of informal institutional proximity. The return intention of long-term migrants will be reduced when they become familiar with local language and actively participate in the social security system of the inflow places.