滑坡运动路径复杂度研究:综述与展望

滑坡运动路径具有普遍的复杂性，体现为侧散、转向、分叉、交织、聚合与并联等复杂行为.滑坡运动路径复杂性增大了滑坡危险性.因而，滑坡危险性评估对滑坡运动路径复杂度的量化和概率分布研究提出了需求.系统地梳理和总结了滑坡运动路径复杂度的研究现状，指出了相关研究所面临的关键问题，并进行了未来研究展望.总体上，当前关于滑坡运动路径复杂行为的研究，主要面临量化研究稀缺、概率分布研究欠缺的问题.具体表现在:现有滑坡运动路径的剖面线概化方法难以处理多路径复杂行为；现有零星的指标不能满足滑坡运动路径复杂度的系统性科学量化；滑坡运动路径复杂度概率分布的分布函数不明、主控因素不清.进一步，针对待解决的关键问题，本文在研究展望中提出:主要通过分段单路径化方案，实现滑坡运动多路径复杂行为的剖面线概化；构建基于剖面线的滑坡运动路径复杂度的量化指标体系，突破量化难题；基于大量滑坡实例数据，确定滑坡运动路径复杂度概率分布的分布函数、查清其主控因素；最终，实现滑坡运动路径复杂度概率分布的预测建模，支撑滑坡危险性及风险定量评估. 

Complexities of Landslide Moving Path: A Review and Perspective

Landslide is generally characterized by complex moving paths, reflected by behaviors including spreading, turning, splitting, braiding, coalescence and connection.The complexity of landslide moving path increases landslide risk.Therefore, researches on the quantifications and probability distributions of the complexities of landslide moving paths are required for landslide hazard assessment.In this paper it systematically reviews current researches on the complexities of landslide moving paths, points out key problems faced by relevant researches, and proposed perspectives for future researches.Generally, both the quantifications and probabilistic distributions of the complexities of landslide moving paths are inadequate.Specifically, the current profile abstraction method for landslide moving path is not applicable to multi-path complex behaviors; existing indices cannot systematically and scientifically quantify the complexities of landslide moving paths; the probability distribution functions of the complexities of landslide moving paths and their major constraining factors are not clear.Further, for solving the above problems, in this paper it suggests in the prospects: (1) to realize profile abstractions of multi-path complex behaviors mainly by transforming multi-paths into single-paths section by section; (2) to systematically quantify the complexities of landslide moving paths by developing a profile based index system; (3) to find out the probability distribution functions of the complexities of landslide moving paths and their major constraining factors by comprehensively analyzing data of landslide cases from various sources; and finally to develop prediction models for the probability distributions of the complexities of landslide moving paths, and further give a scientific support for quantitative landslide hazard and risk assessments in practice.