拉萨-林芝铁路沿线主要气象灾害风险研究

基于1980~2010年拉萨-林芝铁路沿线17个地面站的气象资料、2019年西藏统计年鉴和西藏自治区地理信息数据资料，运用自然灾害风险综合指数法、层次分析法以及GIS空间处理技术，分析了孕灾环境脆弱性、灾害因子危害性和承灾体脆弱性，建立了拉萨-林芝铁路沿线主要气象灾害的风险研究模型，完成了拉萨-林芝铁路沿线主要气象灾害风险等级区划。结果表明：拉萨-林芝铁路沿线闪电高发季节是夏季和早秋，占91.23%；暴雨高发季节是盛夏和秋季，占93.60%；暴雪主要发生在冬季，占87.06%；大风主要发生在春季，占74.59%。拉萨-林芝铁路沿线暴雪灾害高风险区主要分布在林芝东南部和米林以东，大风灾害高风险区主要分布在加查和朗县附近，闪电和暴雨灾害高风险区主要分布在林芝市和山南市附近。

Risk Research of Main Meteorological Disasters along the Lhasa-Nyingchi Railway

Based on the meteorological data of 17 ground stations along the Lhasa-Nyingchi railway from 1980 to 2010, the 2019 Tibet Statistical Yearbook data and the geographic information data of the Tibet Autonomous Region, the natural disaster risk comprehensive index method, the analytic hierarchy process and the GIS spatial processing technology are used to analyze the vulnerability of the disaster-pregnant environment, the hazard of disaster factors and the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body, the risk research model of the main meteorological disasters along the Lhasa-Nyingchi railway is established and the risk zoning of major meteorological disasters is completed. The results show the high-incidence seasons of lightning along the Lhasa-Nyingchi railway are summer and early autumn, accounting for 91.23%. The high-incidence seasons of heavy rain are midsummer and autumn, accounting for 93.60%. The high-incidence season of blizzard is winter, accounting for 87.06%. The high-incidence seasons of gale is spring, accounting for 74.59%. The high-risk areas for blizzard disasters are mainly in the southeast of Nyingchi and the east of Milin, the high-risk areas for gale disasters mainly appear near Gacha and Lang County, and the high-risk areas for lightning and rainstorm disasters are mainly in Nyingchi City and Shannan City.