2000—2010年亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化及驱动力分析

土地利用/覆盖变化是全球变化研究的重要问题，而海岸带则是该领域研究的热点区域。以三套土地利用/覆盖数据（MCD12Q1、CCI-LC和GlobeLand30）为基础，采用基于一致性分析和模糊集合理论的数据融合方法，获取2000年和2010年亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖分类信息，进而分析土地利用/覆盖变化特征及驱动因素。结果表明：十年间亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化方式主要以耕地萎缩和林地扩张为主，其次是湿地扩张，再次是草地和裸地萎缩，最后是灌木地和人造地表扩张；土地利用/覆盖类型之间的相互转换面积较小，仅占研究区总面积的4.22%，其中分布面积占优势的变化类型为耕地–林地–草地相互转换、灌木地–裸地相互转换、林地转为湿地以及林地转为灌木地等。地形因素、气候分异等自然驱动力深刻影响着土地利用/覆盖变化的宏观格局，而人口压力增大、经济高速发展、政策的颁布与实施等人文驱动力则是推动十年间亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化的主要原因。

Land use/land cover change along low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia and their driving forces from 2000 to 2010

Land use/land cover change is an important issue in the study of global change, and the coastal area is a hot spot region in this field. In this paper, three land use/land cover datasets (MCD12Q1, CCI-LC and GlobeLand30) were used as the research object and a fusion method based on agreement analysis and fuzzy-set theory was adopted to obtain the classification information of land use/land cover along low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia in 2000 and 2010. Then, the variation characteristics and driving factors of land use/land cover were analyzed. Main findings are as follows: land use/land cover change along low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia from 2000 to 2010 was shown that, cropland shrinkage and forest expansion ranked top one, followed by wetland expansion, next were grassland and bare land shrinkage, and lastly shrubland and artificial surfaces expansion. The area of interconversion between land use/land cover types was small, accounting for only 4.22% of the total area of the study area; thereinto, the dominant variation types were the interconversion of cropland, forest and grassland, the interconversion of shrubland and bare land, forest that turned into wetland and forest that turned into shrubland. The regional characteristics of land use/land cover change in various subregions along low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia were different from each other, and the reasons were mainly related to the vegetation types, soil properties, topography, climatic conditions, social conditions and economic levels of each subregion. Although natural driving forces such as terrain, climate, and so on profoundly affected the macro pattern of land use/land cover change, humanistic driving forces such as population growth, economy development, and policy implementation were the direct causes of land use/land cover change along low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia from 2000 to 2010. Overall, this paper fills the gap in the study of land use/land cover change along low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia, and provides information and suggestions for scientific research on man-earth relationship, land resource management, ecological environmental protection and coordinated economic development along low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia.