基于媒体事件的中亚、东盟区域对中国地缘关系判别研究

基于GDELT数据，通过构建语气指数、冲突语气均衡度、冲突事件集中度、事件时维记忆性等指标，定量分析2013—2020年中亚、东盟国家在有关中国的事件上的语气态度，辨识异常时段并追踪事件，从媒体事件角度识别和判断区域风险，进而揭示对中国的地缘关系。结论如下：中亚、东盟关于中国事件的语气态度以合作为主，语气指数表现出“尖峰肥尾”和对称性等特征，两区域存在冲突语气频繁波动的相同时段；相较东盟，中亚关于我国的冲突语气更不均衡、冲突事件高集中度时段更短少；以半月为单位，两地冲突事件的前时段会对后时段产生正向影响，以季度为单位，中亚仍为正向影响，而东盟则倾向产生逆向影响；中亚主要风险为公共卫生健康、恐怖袭击和民族宗教问题；东盟主要风险有公共卫生健康、领土主权受侵、境外犯罪、边境风险、空难、项目受阻、恐怖袭击等。研究建议，我国应加强对中亚、东盟的媒体舆论引导的影响力，对待中亚区域风险当以“重视阶段性”的防范方针，采取“积极平复和审慎对待”的策略，优化民族和宗教政策；对待东盟当以“重视长时距”的合作布局，在法律完善、防暴防恐、打击犯罪、提升公民文明行为等方面强化地缘合作，优化地缘关系。

A study on the discernment of Central Asia and ASEAN region on China's geopolitical relations based on media events

Based on GDELT data, this paper used quantitative analysis through constructing the index system consists of tone index, conflict tone equilibrium degree, conflict event concentration degree, event time-dimension memory, to analyze the tone attitudes of Central Asian and ASEAN countries about Chinese event in 2013-2020. From the perspective of media events to identify anomalous time periods, tracking events and judge regional risks and revealing geo-relation.Conclusion includes: The tone of attitudes towards Chinese event in Central Asian and ASEAN countries is mainly cooperative, but frequently fluctuate in the tone of conflict in both regions over the same time period. The tone of the conflict in Central Asia is more uneven and the number of periods of high concentration of conflict events is shorter than in ASEAN, and the periods of anomalies measured by the balance of conflict relations between Central Asia and ASEAN are consistent with the results of the tone index. On a semi-monthly basis, conflict events that have already occurred in both regions have a positive impact on subsequent conflict events, and on a quarterly basis, Central Asia is more likely to have a positive impact, while ASEAN tends to have a negative impact. The main risks of Central Asia are public health, terrorist attacks and ethnic and religious issues, while the main risks of ASEAN are public health and wellness, territorial sovereignty infringement, offshore crime, border risks, air accidents, obstruction of cooperation projects, terrorist attacks, etc. It is recommended that China should strengthen the influence of media opinion guidance in Central Asia and ASEAN. China should attach importance to the phased preventive policy and adopt the strategy of active calm and prudent treatment in dealing with the risks, and optimize ethnic and religious policies in Central Asia. China should pay attention to the layout of long-term cooperation with ASEAN to prevent geopolitical risks and optimize geopolitical relations in the areas of legal supplementation, preventing violence and terrorism, fighting crime, and enhancing civilized behavior of citizens.