| 中短期强震危险地点的跟踪预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 车兆宏,孙士宏.中短期强震危险地点的跟踪预测[J].地震,1996,16(4):363-371. |
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| 作者姓名： | 车兆宏 孙士宏 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中国北京100039国家地震局综合观测中心 [2]中国北京100036国家地震局分析预报中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家地震局“八五”攻关课题85-06-02-04的部分成果 |
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| 摘 要： | 系统研究强震前活动及各种前兆空间上的演化特性，提出确定危险区，危险地段，危险地点的基本原则，顾及地质背景及前兆的时序特点，提出用累积危险度跟踪预测强震危险地点的方法，并在对唐山地震及大同地震的验证中收到预期的效果，累积危险度的高值葬，是未来强震发生的地点。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震 危险地点 跟踪预测 中期预报 |
TRACE PREDICTION STUDY OF SITES FOR MEDIUM- AND SHORT- TERM STRONG EARTHQUAKE RISKS |
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| Che Zhaohong.TRACE PREDICTION STUDY OF SITES FOR MEDIUM- AND SHORT- TERM STRONG EARTHQUAKE RISKS[J].Earthquake,1996,16(4):363-371. |
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| Authors: | Che Zhaohong |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, authors researched systematically the seismic activities and the spatial evolution characteristics of various precursors before strong earthquakes. Authors put forward a basic principle for determinating the risk area, risk zone and risk site. Considering the geological setting and time sequence characteristics of the precursors, a trace prediction method of risk sites of strong earthquake by using the accumulation risk dimension is proposed. The method shows prospective effect in verification of Tangshan and Datong earthquakes. The high numerical value area of accumulation risk dimension will be the site of the coming strong earthquakes. |
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| Keywords: | Tectonic earthquake Seismic risk region Medium-term prediction Anomaly Pattern recognition |
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